The trouble with using a comparator is the need for a voltage reference, but as you pointed out, earlier, these adjustable shunt references contain both a reference and an opamp and the bypass transistor.
So, there are two possibilities:
1. Jameco has a TO92 version of the TL431 (p/n: 33347). That would be much easier to work with. This one requires a bit more current to run so the circuit puts a load of around 50uA when the LED is off.
2. Jameco also has a TO92 version LM385Z-1.2 (p/n: 24117). Also easy to work with, and because it only needs, worse case, 35nA on the FB input, and 10uA for the voltage reference, it's possible to design a circuit that puts much less of a load on the battery (around 16uA when the LED is off -- it could be made to draw even less, but I'm concerned about noise immunity and current leakage as the board gets old and dusty).